Victorious Lebanese Forces , Victory for Lebanese Nation, Lebanese National Resistance

Finally, the long awaited Lebanese elections took place, It was no surprise that there would be surprises, but no one knew in which directions

Since the 2000s, all elections results election experts could anticipate the outcome, more or less, specially that after the year 2005, when Christian leaders returned to the scene, Muslim Shiite, Sunni and Druze areas were dominated by superior powers, and even inside the Christian areas, they two major competitors who allied with some minor parties and independent figures, these two had shared the seats
The 2018 elections were no different, the Free Patriotic movement and Christian allies won above 20 seats, and with a coalition with other Muslim winners they had become the largest parliamentary bloc, The Lebanese Forces had won another 15 seats and had become the second largest Christian parliamentary bloc, and all this was no surprise

An Armenian Version of this aricle can be found on Aravot.am web site:
https://www.aravot.am/2022/05/21/1269037/ 

But what made it almost impossible to predict this year, it was not just a single factor, it was a series of crucial factors which would have played surely a decisive role in changing the parliament formation
First of all, naturally, is the fact that suddenly Lebanese woke up one day to find out that all their entire life savings have vanished, evaporated, disappeared, Lebanon collapsed economically, the Lebanese pound lost 90% of its value, government power ministry and private generators combined could no long provide the electricity service, internet service became extremely poor, as the Lebanese Pond lost its value salaries diminished to 15% of their value,

Image from http:/www./arevelk.am/

All this naturally led to a huge frustration and resentment towards the leading political parties, and the Civil society gave birth to a civil peaceful revolution, which eventually lacked experience and organizing, and split into several groups, but, there was now a new force in the country, the youth revolution, it had started in a small shy presence in the year 2018 due to the garbage crisis, but now it had become a third force to be reckoned, despite its lack of experience and divisions
Another major factor was the fact that the leading Muslim Sunni dominating power, the future movement, who had already undergone a deep process of weakening, its leader declared that they will not participate in the elections, this created a huge gap
Another factor was the fact that the 2nd Christian force, the Lebanese Forces has gained huge popularity inside the Christian areas, mostly due to the fact that it’s opponent, the free patriotic movement, has been blamed for the collapse, and the current President General Michel Aoun is in fact from the Free patriotic movement party (its creator and was its leader for decades, when someone becomes president in Lebanon, he can no longer belong to any party)
Also, some new Sunni powers are on the rise, some take a more firm stance against Hizbullah, the most powerful force not only inside the Shiite sect but also Lebanon, since it has an armed group stronger the national Lebanese Army, justifying itself that as “Resistance” despite the fact that No one occupies Lebanon, it justifies that there is a certain area called Shebaa that Israeli did not withdraw from when it withdrew from Lebanbon in 2000, and this area is a disputed area, no one determines whether it is part of Syria or Lebanon
And so the much anticipated elections began
In order to fully understand the political conflict, I need to explain some facts
Lebanon since the year 2005, is divided between two fronts, they are called
8 March, which is a coalition of pro-Iranian and Syrian regime allies, headed by Shiite Hizbullah, who has a huge military army, Shiite Amal movement, and the free patriotic movement, The Armenian Revolutionary federation….
14 March, The Christian parties Lebanese Forces, The Lebanese Phalange, the Future movement (Sunni Muslim), Social Democrat Hunchak Party, and some independent figures, these forces are accused of being pro-western; they oppose the fast that Hizbullah has an armed group and refuse Syrian/Iranian influence inside Lebanon
There is also the Druze party the Progressive Socialist party, who was once part of 14 March
It is also true that 14 March collapsed and the forces inside it became political opponents, The Lebanese Forces and Phalange kept refusing Hizbullah maintaining an army, the Future movement and the Progressive Socialist party eventually reconciled with this situation
Now after the revolution, the revolution raised the slogan : “ All Means All” and condemned all political traditional parties, thus a three tier struggle began between these three fronts, and in that is why in these elections several lists competed with each other
Results
The results are blurry and foggy,  no one won a decisive victory, 8 March won nearly 50% of the seats, somehow less or more, that is why it no longer enjoys the majority or a very fragile one, it faces two major forces now, the revolution and 14 March

Every news agency gives a contradicting percentage, some represent 8 March winning slightly above 50%, others slightly less than 50%, this controversy will carry on for the next 4 years, in 2005 and 2005, the percentages were clear and accurate between 8 and 14 March
According to Sabrina News
8 March won 61 or 63 seats (maybe less, the figure is not 100% clear0
14 march 37
Independent personalities 15
The forces that call for total change 15
This means that all this is a blow for 8 March, who enjoyed a clear majority after the 2018 elections 
This is not the only blow for Hizbullah and 8 March
The Lebanese forces, it’s most crucial opponent inside Lebanon, won 7 more seats, some 22 seats, (15 in 2018), it became the largest Christian bloc, while the Free patriotic movement won less seats than the Lebanese Forces, The Lebanese forces won seats on every single district in Lebanon, and it is growing in power
This does not mean that now 14 March and the Lebanese forces also enjoy the upper hand in the game, mainly because inside the Civil society revolutionaries, many powers have their deep disagreements with the Lebanese forces as well, in addition to their conflict with Hizbullah and 8 March, not only that, the phalange party, part of 14 March, who also has won some seats, is also in rivalry and disagreement with the Lebanese Forces, and much of its president Cheikh Sami Gemayels electoral campaign criticized the Lebanese Force
Therefore, in Lebanon, which is, due to its multi religious status, is destined to govern by consensus, not majority, this created huge issues and hindered formation of governments and electing a president due to the inability to agree between two fronts, now we have three fronts
I asked Mr. Richard Kouyoumdjian, who is in charge of the Lebanese Forces external relations, about his opinion and comments about the elections, he made this short comment:
“
These elections showed clearly that Lebanese and Lebanese Armenians support the project of the state and democratic values
“ 
Winners by fronts and political parties
-    Civil Society : 13 
-    Independent personalities : 15
-    8 March
o    Free Patriotic Movement (Christian – party of Lebanese president General Michel Aoun) : 18
o    Amal Movement (Muslim Shiite – party of Speaker of Lebanese parliament) : 15
o    Hozbullah : 15
o    Armenian Revolutionary Federation – Tashnak : 3
o    Union Party (Secular) :1
o    Islamic Projects council (Muslim Sunni religious) : 2
o    Lebanese Marada (Giants – Christian – Pro Syrian regime - based in Lebanese Norther area og Zgharta – Ehden): 1

-    Parties in The Middle
o    Dialogue party : 1 
o    Dignity : 1
o    Islamig group (Muslim Sunni) : 2

-    14 March parties
o    Lebanese Forces (Christian right wing Lebanese Nationalist) :18 -20 (accuracy needs to be checked)
o    Lebanese Phalange (Christian right wing Lebanese Nationalist) : 4
o    Lebanese Ahrar (National Liberal Democrat – Christian center-right) : 1
o    Progressive Socialist Party (Muslim Druze)  : 8
o    Independence movement (Lebanese Christian – based in Lebanese Norther area og Zgharta – Ehden) : 1
o    Future Movement former members: 6 (Muslim Sunni – Pro Saudi Arabia and the west)
All this creates an atmosphere of anticipation suspense, and even worry, today there are clearly two fronts and polarities very much in conflict, the Lebanese Forces who is now clearly the dominant force inside the Christian areas with allies inside the Muslim Druze and Sunni environment, and with deputies distributed on the entire Lebanese geography from the capital to the Muslim Sunni/Christian North and Christian/Muslim Shiite South, and the Muslim Druze/Christian Mountain areas and Mount Lebanon, the Lebanese Forces was the strongest armed Lebanese group during the Lebanese War and fought battles with the Lebanese Muslim Left, The Palestinians and the Syrians, uit represents the Christian Middle and working class, and clearly now it is the strongest force inside the Christian Areas, specially Mount Lebanon.
On the other side there is Hizbullah, who has a 40,000 strong extremely well-trained professional army, who fought wars against the Israeli occupation and was a balance shifting force inside the Syrian Civil war
Political and media conformation was at its peak for 2 decades between these two rival forces, now the Lebanese Forces has emerged as the leading force in mount Lebanon, and on the very same day of the elections tensions and street clashes between the two rivals was at it’s peak
Of course all this raises concerns; Lebanese Forces is the only force besides the Lebanese Phalancge party who never made truce and compromise regarding Hizbullah maintaining a huge army
(The Lebanese Forces and Phalange are in fact deeply interconnected, The Lebanese Forces was formed by Late Martyr Bashir Gemayel – the Martyred Lebanese president, he was the son of the founder of the Lebanese Phalange Pierre Gemayel, The current leader of the Lebanese Forces Dr. Samir Gaegae and most Lebanese Forces leaders were former members of the Phalange, The current leader of the Phalange is Sami Gemayel – The Lebanese Forces founder Bashir Gemayel was his uncle)

As the results were making clear that the Lebanese Forces were winning, minor street clashes seemed to appear between the Hizbullah and Lebanese Forces populates areas
All these raise concerns
On the second day of the election results the Lebanese already collapsed pound also collapsed dramatically 
I Spoke to Arevelk chief editor Mr. Sako Aryan about this, he had this to say:

“
it is too early to be able to define which direction does the current parliament have, it is true that there are opinions that the Lebanese Shiite sect has lost its former influence in this parliament, because the majority might belong to 14 march and the independent forces inside the parliament, but it is too early to say that Hizbullah and the president Michel Aoun and His party the free patriotic movement are on retreat, we have to wait and monitor the developments,
It is also worth noting that new political figures are now on the political scene from the civil society, who were probably previously unknown, there number is 15 ,now the question is, who will they cooperate with, will they involve in crucial fights inside the parliament with sensitive matters, or will they wait to see which way the balance will shift
I can also state that it is obvious that there are certain factors regarding these results, which raise concerns within Hizbullah, especially that the Lebanese Forces clearly demands that Hizbullah be disarmed
“
On Armenian Front
Among the Armenian candidates
Two Armenian political parties, The Social Democrat Hunchak party (one candidate in the capital Beirut district 1), 
The Armenian Revolutionary federation (5 candidates, three candidates in Beirut district 1,  one in Northen Maten, one in Zahle)
Civil Society 3 lady candidates in Beirut 1
Lebanese Forces candidate Jihad Pakradouni Beirut 1
From the Phalange list Former General Jean Talouzian Beirut 1
Former General Nareg Abrahamian in Zahle 
And others, among them Ani Seferian, of Homenmen Massis club

Winners
In Beirut
General Jean Talouzinan (Armenian Catholic) – independent, ally of the Lebanese Phalange
Dr. Jihad Pakradouni – Lebanese Forces, (Armenian Orthodox)
Hagop Terzian – Armenian Revolutionary federation supporter, (Armenian Orthodox), member of Beirut municipality
Georges Boujikian – businessman - Armenian Revolutionary federation supporter, (Armenian Orthodox), former minister of industry
Paula Yaacoubian, Independent – Civil Society revolutionary, former Journalist and TV host on Future TV (Armenian Orthodox)
Hagop Pakradouni – Leader of Armenian Revolutionary federation Lebanese central committee (Armenian Orthodox)

This result and the debate/argument before it, deepened the rift and the crisis inside the Armenian community, the traditional Armenian parties the Social Democrat Hunchak party and the Armenian Revolutionary federation argues that technically, even though the independent candidates have the legal right to run for the position, morally the representatives of the Armenians should be part of the Armenian political circle
The arguments were based on the fact that Mrs. Yaacoubian belonged to the Lebanese future movement political environment, and due to circumstances did not speak Armenian very well, she is half Lebanese Arabic from the Mother’s side; she is not from the traditional Armenian environment
Yet she has made huge efforts inside the Lebanese Arabic public opinion to defend the Armenian genocide
The argument also deepened because the candidate of the Lebanese Forces Dr. Jihad Pakradouni declared: “ I am only an Armenian on my passport, I don’t think many Armenians will vote for me, they don’t recognize me anyway as Armenian”, maybe this is due to the fact related to his father, who was not recognized as Armenian for domestic reasons I don’t want to mention here
Now 50% of the Armenian deputies are outside the traditional Armenian political circle, the Armenian political parties
I also asked Aravelk Editor Mr. Sako Aryan about his impression about the results Armenian 
He made these comments:

“
As for the Armenian community and these results, if we set aside the slogans made by the Civil society, and we focus on the Armenian community interests, we should understand that, as Lebanese Armenian I  Patriarch Aram said, 
He said that no Armenian politician should enjoy moral legitimacy if he has not been engaged deeply within the Armenian environment, (Aram One) of course I hope that the six Armenian deputies only serve the Armenian interests
“
I also asked Independent candidate Mrs. Maguie Nenedjian Chebli (candidate for Armenian Orthodox seat in Beirut District 1) about her opinion
She said:
“I consider that it is not a must for someone to belong to an Armenian political party to serve the Lebanese Armenian Community and all Lebanese, I am proud to have served All Lebanese including Lebanese Armenians, not just today when I was a candidate, but during the last 5 years
I will continue to serve the interests of all Lebanese and Lebanese Armenians in particular with the best that I can, whether I am inside the parliament or as a proud Lebanese Armenian Citizen”
In The end I like to conclude: “Democracy, elections and the ballot are not flawless, Democracy is not perfect, but it is the best option and choice among bad choices, the alternative is abyss and chaos – Peter Manoukian”
Peter Manoukian
Lebanese and Armenian Blogger and political enthusiast