Kehhale tragedy - A trap to Lebanese Political rival parties

The kahale tragedy - A trap that no one wanted

Yesterday Lebanon witnessed a very serious and tragic event, I am not a believer in conspiracy theories, and I believe what took place, in the first part was as a result of random coincidence, something that none of the sides has taken into consideration and calculations, and certainly none of the sides wished to see

From what I heard from social media, the internet and whatsapp, a Hizbullah truck passed an area populated mostly by Christians; where its political rivals the Lebanese Forces and the Phalange have strong presence, and something happened that no one was expecting, but it does happen in life, and the truck collapsed, I believed by coincidence, I hope it did not have a Domino effect, but it has had that to a large extent, according to the internet, the truck was full of weapons, and when the area inhabitants approached to help, Hizbullah fighters, according to what I have heard, had opened fire, and things escalated to a tragedy

Now who opened fire first is subject to speculations, but it seems that both Hizbullah members are others inside the city and we have two casualties, one from the city and another a member of Hizbullah, obviously things went out of control

I am sure that this is a situation that no party in Lebanon wished for, it is a trap as a result of coincidence that has everyone entangled with it, and it is very hard to get out from for all sides

-If in fact the local citizen from Kahale was shot and died by a Hizbullah member, we all most probably agree that Hizbullah will very unlikely to hand over the shooter, that leaves it in an awkward position.

Apart from that, now it is clear that Hizbullah does not recognize red lines between areas that support him and areas where his rivals dominate the ground, like Kahale,that may be for a number of reasons

• It is possible that Hizbullah feels forced and in geographic military situation, due to the equations in the region, specially due to the Syrian war, it feels forced and compelled to move deep inside the Lebanese areas
• It might also be that Hizbullah feels so invincible and powerful inside Lebanon to disregard the presence of its rivals and now moves in those areas

Whatever the reason, now this is most probably considered a very serious threatening new development by its political opponents, not only in the Christian areas, but also other areas

Now this incident yesterday exposed and casted light on Hizbullah’s military movements and infiltration to such areas, and all this is, I am sure a trap for Hizbullah, especially that now not only the political parties but also neutral citizens of a lot of Lebanese areas have been emotionally now mobilized against Hizbullah

For the Free Patriotic Movement, this is definitely bad news; it now places it in a very embarrassing position inside the Christian environment, as an ally of Hizbullah

But for the Lebanese Forces and the phalange I think it is also a trap, because now the Christian street might exercise pressure on these two parties who oppose Hizbullah, to make some sort of a very loud reaction, not only condemn politically and through the media, the Christian street might demand these two parties to form a sort of a civil protection movement, but are these two parties ready to risk such steps that might be used by Hizbullah as an excuse for an escalation, one where Hizbullah has definitely the upper hand militarily

And if the Christian parties do not respond, this might be another huge risk, because they might appear weak and also make way for another young Christian movement, more radical, and the latest phenomenon of young immature unorganized Christian street groups might be multiplied by hundreds

Today, Lebanon might be missing a so called “Safety valves in Lebanon”, shields that will safeguard I such situations to guarantee stability

The financial situation is in turmoil, which might affect the Lebanese national Army, especially that both some Kahale residents and Lebanese Forces and phalange members of parliament had negative remarks regarding how the Army behaved, in parallel is financial stability guaranteed for the Army memebrs, all these raise worrisome troubling questions

Lebanon still has not elected a president, the position of the Lebanese central bank was in a vacuum last time I checked the internet, and there is only a government who is supposed to “conducting business” until a new government is formed, after a new president is elected, so this government has limited constitutional privileges

All this make us raise our voice to urge to elect a president, but of course we all know that the obstacles to achieve this are very deep due to the Lebanese system, lack of an established statehood, and and and

Peter Manoukian

A Lebanese Armenian blogger residing in Armenia