Garegin Chugaszyan - through United Armenian efforts we will lay the foundations of New Armenia

Question

Mr. Chugazyan, It is becoming more and more obvious that the Russian power has been overestimated, it is much weaker than so many have described and presented it, every day it seems probable that he may leave the region very soon, who do you see as a possible candidate? Who will fill that position? Do you see any possible candidates for filling this gap in Iran or the United States?

Answer

Yes I agree that Russia’s Power is overestimated, and what the fact that Russia is in a hurry, even during  this war, is trying to stop the flow of gas to Europe, expecting to get fast results from the West, witnesses this fact, this clearly shows that Russian power is overestimated and exaggerated,

And as for your question that who might fill the gap once Russia withdraws from the region, I think that your question is in place, and this issue is not only for Armenians to consider and think about, but also the great powers are thinking about this

And it is clear that in order to fill this gap, the new security equation that the West is trying to establish, must be taken into consideration; this is related to the rivalry between the USA and China

And we have talked about this several times that this rivalry is forcing that the North/South Axis is getting more attention than the East/West Axis,

Therefore it is natural that the construction of North/South Axis is getting more focus and competition from the great powers that who will take part in the construction of this axis

Here also there are different approaches and the west is not united in this matter

For example we clearly see this difference as Great Britain regards Turkey a part of this alliance, unlike the USA which does not see Turkey as a part of this alliance

It is natural that this axis will not be formed in the near days to come and needs that, we also see that The USA silently allows India to construct the Chalbahar port in Iran, Iran which is under sanctions,

And the Chalbahar Port is the point that connects the Indian ocean with the Black sea, it is clear that this is not a plan to be realized in one day, and that Russia is not included in these plans, and that it(Russia) also will not be driven out of the area in one day

Thus Iran’s role in the region is increasing

Yes, I see Iran and the USA part of this North South Axis

Question

If you see Iran and the United States as possible candidates, if so, do you assume that there is an approach between them, especially since a lot has changed in the alliances today?

Answer

Yes I see that USA/Iran relations are in a stage of ups and down (improving advancing/retreating) during the last, but I think on a strategical level these two countries will be able to resolve their disputes and will both be part of the North/South Alliance

Question

How do you assess Iran as an ally of Armenia, also the West, the United States, France, the Arab world as potential allies of Armenia?

Answer

Iran, we can say that, historically, during the last 1600 years, has not been in a serious conflict with Armenia, I think the last time we had a war wit iran was when Vartan Mamikonyan went to battle with Iran (451), I think we have mutual interests with Iran therefore we are natural allies, as for the USA, France and the West, they are not a single entity, concerning the USA, it\s interests in the region meet with Armenian interests concerning Washingtons policy to restrain the Turkish/Russian interests, France has serious issues with Turkey, and it this sense it also a natural ally of Armenia

As for the Arabic world, the countries that have serious disputes with Turkey are therefore natural prospects to improve relations with Armenia, I specifically have in mind the KSA, Saudi Arabia and its allies, as for Qatar, it seems to be more close to Ankara, therefore I see the Arabic countries who have issues with Ankara as natural allies

Question

How do you assess the policy of Turkey, especially that on several occasions, if not directly, but indirectly, it seems to take the side of Russia, especially on Turkey's position to reject the request of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, which It obviously served Putin's interests.

Erdogan has cooperated with Putin on many levels, in Syria, Artsakh, and now in the Ukraine war. Putin seems to be in a lot of trouble. Do you think the US will punish Erdogan for his cunning policy if Putin loses this war? .

Answer

Turkey, as once an empire for 600 years, a serious state has been formulated in this country; therefore we must not underestimate the power of our enemy

Turkey can be able to perform very diplomatic and delicate games at the moment, and it is now trying to provide gains from both the USA and the west from one end and Russia on the other hand during this tension, which I think is only a temporary scene, it’s efforts are only meant to cover up its internal political and social/economical flows, it realizes that its project to form a “Greater Turan” is merely a phantom, it will never realize, and it is similar to Russia’s ambition to form a Russian empire, which is also a phantom

For the west, Turkeys strategically significance lied in its role to hinder and suppress Russian influence, and now Ukraine is carrying out this mission, and in this sense Turkeys role importance will decrease, not immediately, but this is now becoming noticeable, and the Wests policy to suppress Turkey shows that in the next stage of the conflict with Russia Turkey will become such a controversial country for the west, it has already become as such for the west, because we already so Turkeys position when Sweden and Finland wanted to join the Nato, by refusing their request to join the Nato, it once again showed that it is not a trustworthy ally for the West and Nato,

This issue has not started only today, it showed a long time ago, during the first war with Iraq, when it refused to allow the western coalition to use Turkish borders to wage this war with Iraq, it did not allow USA Air and Naval forces to use its air space and sea to attack Iraq, the rift started from that date and kept growing, until today it became clear the Western/Turkish alliance is under serious threat, and I am sure that during the next stages of the war upon Ukraine, this will be more and  more clear and obvious

Let us remember that next year Erdiogan will face serious challamges, he will face elections, and the year 2023 will be full of shocks for Turkey, therefore let us wait for the upcoming developments inTurkey during the next year, especially that we know that the Economic situation in Turkey is very hard, let us remember that Biden during his electoral campaign was talking about Erdogan moving away from power in Turkey, there is such a scenario and the American establishment has serious issues with Erdogan, concerning USA/Turkish relations, Democracy in Turkey, Therefore yes the year 2023 will be a tough year for Erdogan

As for the effects of the Ukrainian war on Erdogan, yes we also see that the Turkish role, yes currently is trying to play the role of a mediator, but I think that in the next stage of Ukrainian war Turkeys role will decrease its significance

Question

Many Armenians in the Diaspora who have returned to Armenia are worried about the rumors that Armenia may join the federation with Russia and Belorussia. For me personally, this is a very worrying sensitive question. We isnide The Republic of Armenia do not intend to see such unexpected surprises,

Answer

For all of our follow compatriots, who have returned to the fatherland from the diaspora, I would like to say one thing, that not only you who have returned from the diaspora, but all those Armenians who are concerned about the destiny of Armenia, we should all consider ourselves the founders of the new state, we should now realize that today we are under the Turkish/Russian grip, and we should our issue in our liberation from this influence and the creation of a new state, therefore this issue concerns both the Armenians who have returned from abroad, and the Armenian who have born here and are aware of the deep crisis we are in today in Armenia, we should lay the foundations of the state upon which the new Armenia will be born

Interview conducted by Bedros Manoukian