Golden Opportunity for sovereign strong state of Armenia to Emerge - Jirayr Sefilian

Question

Mr. Seflyan, among many predictions that you got right, you have predicted correctly that Russian military campaign against Ukraine will face a huge defeat  (Mar 23, 2022), how do you see and evaluate the developments?

Answer

Yes, we were convinced from the very beginning that the war in Ukraine would be to the detriment of Russia, of course, Ukraine pays dearly for all that, but the end will be the defeat of Russia.

As for the developments, as I said, the loser will be Russia and I think that all this will end with Russia's capitulation. The end of the Ukrainian war, for me, means the capitulation of Russia. I do not want to go into too much detail about what this capitulation will look like or what kind of Russia will remain, because many political and political centers are thinking about this today. I would say, uncertainty still prevails.

Of course, in this context, we are interested in the Caucasus, no matter what Russia remains, they will not be dictators in this sector. This will give us a great opportunity to create a sovereign, powerful state. 

Question

So many Armenians who returned to Armenia, even the thought of a coalition union with Russia and Belorussia terrifies us, including myself, do you think Russia's catastrophic awkward situation postponed this and this danger is now getting distant?  

ANSWER :
I am convinced that Putin had decided to "detain" Armenia after the successful end of the war in Ukraine, to form the "Russia-Belarus-Armenia" union of their dreams since so many years. As we have seen, their plans failed.
The Russian side was convinced that as a result of the blitzkrieg, in a few days or at least a week or two, Ki would be brought to his knees, forced to submit to Moscow, after which the "Russia-Belarus-Armenia" union would be implemented. After the failure of these plans, Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Moscow, scheduled in advance, was postponed week by week.
It happened, as far as I remember, on April 19. The result was the well-known thirty points, a package of documents.
We realized that if Russia had succeeded on the Ukrainian front, that 30-point paper would have been completely different. At the same time, we can state that the points in that paper were the prelude to the creation of a "Russia-Belarus-Armenia" union.
Fortunately, the Kremlin failed in Ukraine. The Kremlin realized that the international military-political situation would not allow them to swallow Armenia, so they had to postpone and temporarily postpone their conspiratorial plan.
But now, because of all this, a new danger has arisen: if they refused to de jure seize Armenia, now they are trying to implement that de facto seizure.
We seem to have bypassed the main danger, however, the possibilities of Russian invasion and force intervention are increasing.
To some extent, this idea is surprising. We note that Russian military resources are hardly enough on the Ukrainian front. I do not know how Russia will carry out the annexation of the South Caucasus, but there is a lot of talk about it these days. I think talking too much about it shows that the danger must be reduced. But at the moment, there is a danger.
In all spheres, Moscow has decided to direct each sphere from the Kremlin under the direct leadership.
For example, we have recently witnessed changes in the directors of various well-known companies. The Kremlin is not satisfied with this or that director, their political orders do not seem to be fully fulfilled by the egg they want.
The arrest of Sasna Tsrer should also be considered in the context of the annexation of Armenia.
All this in the South Caucasus, the preparations for that expected Kremlin anesthesia. However, I have a feeling that their intentions will remain the same.
It is a fact that we are living in dangerous days. I would like to emphasize that once again Sasna Tsrer, in fact, took the blow again և, today, our boys, being in closed detention, are suffering for the sake of our people, the country's independence and freedom.
At the same time, we understand that the blows aimed at us, if they do not kill us, then strengthen us. Those who hit us must realize this very clearly. As in the past we have withstood many blows and gathered strength, this և we will become even stronger և we will achieve our goal.

Question

You have also predicted to me personally that the movement of the parliamentary forces will fail and people will not join this movement, people ask, what now, what is the vision of the fastest growing national movement in the republic, the National Democratic Axis

Answer

Yes, we did have this opinion that this street, non-aligned opposition will not succeed, for various reasons.
First of all, their goal is not to take to the streets to be successful. Unlike our people who came to the square with sincere motives, the leadership of the false opposition did not have that goal. They are just fulfilling an order from Moscow, carrying out the Kremlin's instructions. This is not the first time that Moscow has resorted to such tactics in Armenia, because during the last twenty-five years the Kremlin has controlled both the government and the non-aligned opposition, aiming to make its administration more controllable.
It was clear to us from the beginning. I will not go into what problems they were trying to solve on the street. Going back to the depths, to reality, the opinion of our people towards the former will never allow them to unite around the former criminal circles, criminal circles, circles that oppress the people.
If the people do not unite around them, it does not mean that they are satisfied with the current government. Moreover, the people are disgusted with the current government, naturally, dissatisfied. However, in order for the old ones not to return, for the time being, the people will neither join the former, nor, so to speak, take an active part in the process of removing Nicole, as long as the former remain in the squares.
It can be emphasized that the main beneficiary of staying in the squares of the former is Nikol Pashinyan. As we know, during these three or four years he has constantly played the "black and white" formula, he has been able to successfully fight against the Kremlin, independent of the Kremlin, uncontrollable by Moscow, a real, third force. However, I think that everything has a size and a limit, it can not continue like this for a long time.
As for what our movement has to say, we announced during the April 9 rally. We have told our people that we will gather next time and we must not return home until we get rid of this apocalypse, this treacherous government.
Of course, when we talk about the moment, we conditionally say "x moment", understanding the military-political developments in our region. Carefully following, aiming to capture the right moment, to invite our supporters, our people to the squares to start the process of ousting Pashinyan.
Until then, we have the task of preparing in two main directions. The first is the formation of an interim government, and the second is the organization of self-defense.
The likelihood of an external, violent threat is growing day by day, which is why we have recently issued a well-known call on my behalf for the worst-case scenario of volunteering.
At the same time, we must prepare for the well-known "x moment" to invite people to the squares, to be organized so that all this is done in the shortest possible time.
These are the things we have to do today. Those who sympathize with us, agree with us and help us, we will be grateful.

Question

On the political spectrum, there is this deep phenomenon, almost half the population refuse to be involved in any way in politics, from all generations, 50% of people did not vote in the last two elections, do you suppose the emergence of a young new force like the national movement can eventually motivate them to be involved

Answer

It is not right to try to give a classic assessment to the electoral processes in our country. By large means, elections are not held in the colony.
We have been talking about this for decades. Most of our people did not perceive us. I think that after the recent events, particularly after the 44-day war, many people already understand that our country is not, in fact, an independent state, subject to Moscow, we are in a new colonial state. Therefore, when talking about elections, we must take these circumstances into account. There are no elections in the colony or camps.
It is not accidental that in the declaration of the National Democratic Party, in that one and a half or two years, in our program, which we imagine should be a transitional phase, there is an important part, which presupposes the implementation of such actions as a result of which it will be possible to organize serious, free and fair elections. in our country for the first time.
It will take at least one and a half to two years. I repeat, it is not right to give a classic, political assessment of the last elections.

Question

I as someone who spends a huge time on the internet have marked the national movement as the dominating force and undisputed prince on the internet, yet the Mass media seems not impressed, how do you explain this, specially that the national movement can mobilize a huge number of supporters  - within a few hours

Answer

We have not been properly introduced to the public , this was specially the case since the very day the National Democratic Axis was established, and since November 9, in particular. There is a special assignment, instructed from different centers.
I would like our compatriots to understand.
This is not about mobilizing hundreds of thousands of people. We understand very well how depressed our people are, how controllable they are by different clans. At the same time, the fate of peoples has always been decided by the minority. Our history has proved it. For example, during the first Artsakh war. We all know that a small part was ready to fight for Artsakh. Now, when we talk about mobilization, first of all we are talking about the consolidation of that fighting layer. After the consolidation of that layer, the consolidation of the masses will take place by itself.
Therefore, I want everyone to understand that when we say that we must prepare for the "X moment", it is a historical opportunity that will be created to lay the foundations of our independent state. It will be done by an army of devotees, a layer of devotees, a layer that is ready for everything for a sovereign Armenia. Certainly, this layer will have a lot of popular support during its move.

Interview conducted by Peter Manoukian