A Tale of two dictators - Turkish – Syrian regime rapprochement and glimpse of normalization of relations
Syrian Regime –the undisputed candidate for championship of ideal convenient solution for regional, eastern and western international powers
Some quotes are from these articles of mine published on Aravot.am
Rapprochement of the Turkish-Syrian regime and reviews of relations regulation
» https://www.aravot.am/2022/09/10/1289913/
The international media does not pay attention to these events
» https://www.aravot.am/2022/09/15/1290847/
Armenian Version of this article:
Թուրք-սիրիական ռեժիմի մերձեցում և հարաբերությունների կարգավորման ակնարկներ
Turkish and Syrian pragmatism, will it finally lead to the inevitable outcome? A harmonized coexistence of the most convenient among a series of bad choices
More than a decade ago, I had a lucky guess, on Social Media some Syrians called for and set a date for the start of their own version of what was known as “Arab Spring”, I sat down with two experienced Lebanese Armenian politicians, I declared that soon, very soon, things will change in the region, and certainly for Lebanon, as Lebanon is directly and immediately affected by whatever goes in the region.
I would not expose a secret when I tell you that Lebanon, monitors, analyzes, anticipates the regional and international situation to elect a president, Lebanon is intensely influenced and affected crucially by what goes on in occupied Palestine, and much more by the political mood, calculations and strategies of Syria, of course it also calculates the policies of Washington, Europe, Russia, Iran, and lately Turkey
When I declared that the Syrian grip will soon perish in Lebanon, it will no longer be able to focus on Lebanon, because a revolution is about to start in Syria, both politicians disagreed with my prediction, the elder politician, much more experienced, addressed me : “ Bedros, No such thing can ever take place in Syria, impossible, in Syria, the regime has seen to it that one of two people is part of the Syrian intelligence secret service” and they both laughed at my “naïve political thinking”, they found my prediction extremely ambitious, and some kind of wishful thinking
This took place a week before Lebanese Sovereignty forces – what was known as 14 March coalition held its annual huge rally, on March 14 2011, a day later, on March, and the revolution in Syria started
I think that mainly the reason the Syrian regime was unable to control the situation was the superb areas, it started in the superb areas of Deraa, and it broke out in such a great momentum and intensity, the number of protestors was huge, and it soon was widespread in several Syrian provinces, it even reached the capital Damascus, all this happened very fast for the regime in Damascus to absorb
And Since my first prediction turned out to be correct, where a lot of political analysts were skeptical that Syrians would dare defy the iron grip of the Syrian regime, I was quite sure that the Syrian revolution would soon triumph, just like the Egyptian, Tunisian, and later on Libyan (Yemen also witnessed a similar revolution, but it only led to civil war)
I was declaring my prediction that the regime in Syria would fall, but a more experienced Lebanese Christian politician, who was in fact a deep rival of the Syrian regime, advised me, “Bedros, do not rush in your analysis and optimism (I am also not a fan not so ever of the Syrian regime), the case of Syria is much more complicated, it is much too soon to see such an outcome of regime change, such a scenario would take years to mature, It is years early for the regime to fall” he told me
And a year later he told me, “Remember what I told you” and he was right
Despite the fact that hundreds of thousands of Syrians protested against the Syrian rule, if not millions, despite the fact that the revolution showed that at least more than 60% of Syrians demanded that the regime in Syria lets go of power, the Syrian rule survived
This regime is part of a deep sophisticated equation, several regional and international powers insist that they would do everything I their power to keep this regime, will not spare any sacrifice or price to ensure it stays in power, not only that, even a lot of its declared actual or supposedly opponents see this rule as the most convenient and the least damaging to their interests and security, they would undermine it, weaken it, try to snatch some of its territories, but at the crucial moment, will not find any better alternative and would keep it alive, regardless if weak or sick, they will be pleased to see it unhealthy, but never breathless
And such power is Turkey, and this is the topic of this article
Turkish regime is among those regimes that are obviously ill intended towards Syria as a whole, and for a number of reasons, among which maybe a territorial dispute, a lot of Syrians consider the Iskandaroun region which was given to Turkey a part of Syria, there is the historical memories of Ottoman occupation to Arabic Syria, After world war II Turkish state and Israel established strategic ties, military, political and diplomatic cooperation,
Despite all these factors, Turkey saw in the Syrian Baath regime a regime that takes pragmatic realistic approach, Syria, where Kurdish Workers party enjoyed sanctuary, Syrian regime forced Kurdish Leader Abdullah Öcalan to leave Syria in 1998
I open brackets here, the same scenario might also apply to Israel, the Syrian regime respected the ceasefire with Israel, and the borders were stable for maybe 40 years between Syria and Israel during the Baath rule
When Erdogan and his party came to power in Turkey, they declared a policy : Zero conflict with the surrounding countries, and Erdogan is beyond doubt an extremely cunning and smart politician, he approached Syria and President Bashar Assad welcomed this initiative with open arms,
Some say that this was the real deadly mistake, and Turkish movies, Turkish culture, Turkish influence entered Syria, a lot of Syrian Muslim Sunni citizens welcomed this approach, Erdogan played a very smart game, he did the same with the Palestinians, while he orchestrated a loud propaganda and a clever theater in which he defies Israel and becomes the self-proclaimed champion of Palestinian rights, defending Palestinians in speeches and nothing beyond, he started to appear inside the Arabic world for so many as the Muslim supreme hero to defend the Palestinians, while he practically did nothing practical to support this claim and the Palestinians, his propaganda was very successful.
Ironically, The Syrian regime was so naïve in this area, they contributed to this propaganda, by welcoming this fake hypocrite approach by Erdogan
We Armenians in the diaspora and the Arabic world also failed to counter this propaganda, some of us even contributed to it unwillingly, by an unnecessary declared sympathy towards Iran, while Iran was regarded by Sunni Arabs as the enemy
Some say that with Turkey penetrating the Syrian environment, it became the Trojan horse, that conspired and planted a hidden seed inside the Syrian revolution, which started as a secular civil movement and Christian minorities were part of it
Then the revolution was penetrated and eventually hijacked by extreme Islamic Jihadists,
Arguments regarding the Turkish regime cooperation with Muslim Jihadist Extremists are overwhelming
One such movement is “Ahrar al Sham” - Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya, or the Islamic Movement of the Free Men of the Levant, (1)
Jabhat al-Nusra , had openly declared allegiance to the Al –Qaeda, until one day they suddenly announced they broke ties with this global jihadist group (2)
Therefore under Erdogan Regime Turkey at least admits support to Ahrar Al Sham
It is also worth noting there are reports that the leader of the Nusra front has been hospitalized in Turkey (3)
Al-Nusra is the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda.
A factor that might have motivated Erdogan to seek rapprochement with Syria might be that the Turkish elections are near, and the Turkish opposition is exercising high pressure on the government to seek a sort of resolution with the Syrian regime, as the only way to solve the Syrian refugees’ issue
Turkish Opposition demands normalization as the only way to solve the Syrian refugees’ issue (4)
Three weeks ago, Turkish foreign minister Jawish Oghlu statements resulted in a multi head storm, political and emotional
On August 11, Jawish Oghlu announced that he had made a conversation with Syrian Foreign minister Faisal El Mekdad, as he called for “ An any kind of reconciliation between the Syrian Regime and the Syrian Opposition”
After this controversial statement, a short while later, Turkish president Erdogan made more advanced statements, as he stated that “Turkey does not seek a defeat of Bashar El Assad, and that there should be more advanced steps with Syria, to disrupt plans against the region, … and that talks between countries should not be abandoned, and they can start in any moment, and they should start” (6)
A lot of political analysts also think that Moscow has played an effective role in this development, and that Moscow on one end has not a huge influence on Damascus to pressure it to compromise and seek some sort of resolving of issues with Ankara, and on the other hand Russia has managed to motivate Ankara for this approach, after the fact that Russia has made a huge contribution to Turkish economy in the last two years
Naturally, the two major sides who are displeased and worried about a possible scenario of Assad/Erdogan rapprochement are the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian Opposition
In North Syria, on August 12, huge demonstrations took place against Jawush Oghlu statements, in the areas that are under the military control of Syrian opposition troops, Turkish flags were even burned during these demonstrations (7), Ankara has given all sorts of supports to several Syrian opposition fractions since years, now they naturally worry that Ankara will abandon them and cut a deal with Damascus which might result in exercising pressure on these fractions to eventually recognize Bashar Assad continuation of ruling Syria
As for Kurds, who, after turning to the regime for assistance against the Turkish invasion, naturally they would fear that now Turks carry on with this invasion and receive direct or indirect legitimacy from the Syrian state to do so, or at least silent consent and lack of diplomatic and political opposition
I talked to two Syrian Kurd political activists to receive their feedback about this
Nawaf Khalil
Director of the Kurdish Center for Studies at Kurdisches Studienzentrum - Kurdish Center for Studies
“ Currently, there is nothing to worry about, yet again, there is nothing to comfort either, because the Syrian regime is still on the same mentality, that led to the explosion of events in Syria, al the destruction of cities, hundreds of thousands of casualties, millions of refugees,
The same is true for Erdogan regime, Erdoghan has hindered the dialog between the Kurdish Workers part – PKK and Odjallan, and the Turkish state, in Turkey also hundreds of thousands became refugees, despite the fact that the international media has not spotlighted on these events
There is absolutely zero benefit for both the Syrian and the Turkish people from this relationship between the two regimes
Once again, now there is nothing to worry about, because the Kurdish cause and the iossue of Northern Syria is now related to international sides, there are engagement rules between Russia and USA, and engagement rules with Iran, and other countries, it is not also comforting, but now the situation has changed
Previously, the four countries, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey, regardless of the level of their disagreements, there was one single issue that they would agree upon, which is to strike any aspirations of Kurds to gain their rights“
I also asked Mr. Khalil if he thinks that Moscow has played a role in this rapprochement
Nawaf Khalil
“ Russian role is very obvious, as it was very clear and obvious when Russia started to interfere directly in Syrian conflict in 2015, Russian role was very decisive, Russian Conspiracy and complicity with Turkey was very clear, and led to the occupation of Afrin,
Afrin fighters resisted for 58 days the second strongest force inside the NATO, Erdogan said it very clearly, Putin asked me to fix relations with Assad, and this is a strategic mistake by Turkey, and now it is paying the price, we hope this will not be expense of the people, and now there is an election, and Erdogan is now trying to change the face of Turkey from the Turkey of Ataturk to the Erdoganian version of Turkey, and he will not succeed
Russian role is everywhere, its deals, Afrin in exchange for eastern Ghoutta, its role led to the fighters leaving Aleppo, Deraa, whether it is called reconciliations, or through the use of force side by side with the Syrian regime and Iran, its role is essential, regarding the efforts to bring the Syrian and Turkish regimes closer, or also to refuse the Turkish threats and further invasion against Syria“
Jiwan Soz ( Syrian Kurd)
Journalist and researcher specializing in Turkish affairs
Jiwan Soz
“The expected Turkish-Syrian rapprochement is worrying, as it will not be in the interest of Syria as a whole, and this means that it will not be in the interest of the Kurds.
Ankara aims, through its possible rapprochement with Damascus, to strike a blow to the pluralistic Syrian Democratic Forces consisting of Kurdish, Arab, Syriac and Armenian armed groups, but this task will not be easy, in terms of the weakness of the Syrian government forces that cannot confront the SDF militarily, and the presence of American forces in Region.
This is the main goal of the Erdogan regime in rapprochement with Assad, to strike the Syrian Democratic Forces and their pluralistic project. This is something that Damascus intends to do as well.
On the other hand, Damascus also wants to eliminate the armed Syrian opposition groups in the Syrian areas occupied by Turkey, in addition to eliminating the extremist jihadist groups in Idlib. At the same time, Damascus requires the withdrawal of Turkish forces from its lands as a condition for any cooperation with it. These Syrian conditions are complicated for the Turkish side and it will not be able to achieve them easily, especially since there is a file of Syrian refugees in Turkey, for which no common solutions have been found so far, which means that any possible Turkish-Syrian coordination against the Syrian Democratic Forces will be delayed, and therefore The Kurdish concern about this rapprochement is not great.
naturally. In my opinion, it was Russia who ordered this rapprochement, and it is also a Russian attempt to distance Turkey from NATO regarding the Ukrainian crisis.”
Bedros Manoukian
Lebanese Armenian Blogger
References and links:
1)
“Turkey and Saudi Arabia began funding Ahrar al-Sham in order to bolster Syrian opposition forces.[10] “
https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/ahrar-al-sham
([10] Sengupta, Kim. “Turkey and Saudi Arabia alarm the West by backing Islamist extremists the Americans had bombed in Syria.” The Independent. 11 May. 2015. Web. 13 May. 2016 )
“Turkey and Saudi Arabia alarm the West by backing Islamist extremists the Americans had bombed in Syria “
“The two countries are focusing their backing for the Syrian rebels on the combined Jaish al-Fatah, or the Army of Conquest, a command structure for jihadist groups in Syria that includes Jabhat al-Nusra, an extremist rival to Isis which shares many of its aspirations for a fundamentalist caliphate.”
2)
“The Army of Conquest – which also numbers the extremist groups Ahrar al-Sham and Jund al-Aqsa among its seven members – has a command centre in Idlib, northern Syria. Turkish officials admit giving logistical and intelligence support to the command headquarters. Although they deny giving direct help to al-Nusra, they acknowledge that the group would be beneficiaries.
They also acknowledge links with Ahrar al-Sham, which is held to be extremist by the US, but has fought against Isis, as has al-Nusra in some parts of Syria. Turkish officials claim that bolstering Ahrar al-Sham will weaken the influence of al-Nusra. “
3)
“Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the commander-in-chief of Syrian militant group Tahrir al-Sham, the successor of the al-Nusra Front, being treated at a hospital in southern Turkey after suffering critical injuries in an explosion in Syria, according to a report on the Sputnik Turkish service news website on Tuesday.
…..
Al-Julani, whose real name is Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a, was listed as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” by the US State Department in May 2013. “
4)
Turkish opposition parties have increased “pressure on Erdoğan to mend ties with the Assad regime because they see [it] as the only way to address Turkey’s refugee question,” explained Gönül Tol, Director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies
https://syriadirect.org/erdogan-hints-at-normalization-with-assad-unpacking-turkeys-u-turn/
(5)
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/syrias-kurds-look-to-assad-for-protection-after-us-pullout.html
Syria’s Kurds look to Assad for protection after US pullout
US-backed Syrian Kurds to turn to Damascus if Turkey attacks
Turkish opposition demands normalization with bashar el assad
6)
7)
