Russia-Ukraine - An inevitable confrontation ?

want to try my best to make this article as objective as I can, putting aside all my personal emotions and political preferences

I am not declaring an invention when I say that for me I have two main political priorities in life, the highest interests and safety of two countries, two nations,  the Land of the Cedars - Lebanese Motherland, and the nation of the descendants of mount Ararat, Armenia

That being said, my principles as a moderate modern democratic socialist made me also a moral citizen of one larger family, one with no borders and that is Humanity

Therefore, I wish only the best for all countries and nations, and surely peace is the best ideal status for nations

Therefore when It comes to the tense situation between the two cousins, Ukraine and Russia, I sincerely hope that the direction and tendency towards escalation is hindered, and another direction is chosen, one that avoids confrontation and choose a solution

In my humble and modest opinion, there was a plan to corner Moscow at least since 2017 inside the United States; there was an orientation to diminish Russian influence in the region I live in

During the 2017 electoral debate, between the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump, Clinton campaign focused heavily on the theory of "Russian Threat", Democrats accused Russia of launching a cyber-war against the USA, hacking Democrat party servers, and leaking information, which helped Donald Trump campaign, Trump took a more "reasonable approach" and his main idea was somehow "We the United states are much stronger than Russia to regard it as a threat" 

I do not want to push conspiracy theories, Trump won, Trump supporters kept insisting that "Globalists powers, Soros, Rotschild, the Illuminati, the 'Establishment' supported the Democrats", Democrats had their own version of conspiracy theories : "Putin is the main reason Trump won, Trump owes Putin his victory, .. He is a Russian agent..."

I do not want to take sides, but I believe that:

-It is very unlikely that Russia has that much influence to play a decisive role in choosing the winner of  a USA elections

-Trump did find common ground with Putin, they did cooperate in the Syrian conflict, Yet Trump pressured Russia hard, but I think Trump set boundaries and chose not to go to full scale escalation and confrontation with Russia

When Joe Biden won the last elections, I said, now Russia is in front of a serious challenge, because the Democrats still had the same vision of a "Dangerous Russia representing a threat"

So many keep insisting that Putin is such a cunning smart politician, I do not share this impression, surely, I respect  Putin as a state leader, but I think he was very short sighted, and did not read the balance of powers correctly, he chose a short sighted approach, kept insisting to behave like a super power, who imposes its will on its neighboring countries, thus exposing Russia to the threat of a western intervention in the region, because as long as the Kremlin will pressure former soviet union republics, dissatisfied countries or at least there people will long for a western intervention to liberate htmselves from Russian influence

Russia is unable to compete with the Western countries, especially the USA, the USA is far too advanced on almost every level, in population, the USA estimates above 300 Million, Russia below 150 Million, USA military budget (865 billion us dollars per year) is more than the next ten countries combined, Russian budget is : $48.2 billion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_Russia

The USA is far more advanced in economy, industrial capabilities, and military industry production

Western powers - NATO alliance, since 1990, has gained most former WARSAW pact eastern Europe countries to its alliance, Former soviet union countries like Georgia and the Baltic states all are considered allies of the west, the west is now at Russia's borders in Georgia and Ukraine

Today, Russia, is in a struggle of survival, it has been on the retreat since 1990, it cannot afford to step backwards a single further step, it cannot afford to allow Kiev to join the NATO, because it will be under the direct and imminent threat of western allies, this is Kremlins situation

Kiev on the other hand cannot afford to yield, if it does not join the Nato, the Superior Russian neighbor will undermine the entire security,  destiny of Ukraine, Kiev will lost its status as a sovereign independent unified state, 

it will lose much of its territory, because 22% of the population is of Russian ethnicity and they feel threatened as a minority inside the Ukrainian state, Ukrainian provinces where the Russian ethnicity is a majority, they want and seek to split from Ukraine and become part of the Russian state, Kiev wants to join the European union and become part of the western market, liberate itself from Russian influence

The situation is extremely complicated, tense, flammable, while both sides seem unable to afford to take a single step backwards, diplomacy seems ineffective and inefficient at this point

All this, and drums of war beat between Kiev and Moscow, and Russian troops gather and accumulate at Ukrainian border

Let us hope and pray for the best

Peter Manoukian